House District 15 — Steve Toth

Executive narrative

Childcare Supply Pressure is below the Texas House median (1.02 vs 1.53). Who the Formula Does Not Count is below the Texas House median (9.3% vs 20.1%). Nighttime Schedule Coverage is below the Texas House median (0.5% vs 2.5%). Early-Shift Workforce is below the Texas House median (10.1% vs 15.1%).

Childcare demand and supply

- Children under 6 — geographic allocation estimate: 15,221
- Working-parent children under 6: 13,811
- Current qualifying authorized capacity: 13,485
- Childcare Supply Pressure: 1.02
- Who the Formula Does Not Count: 9.3%

Nighttime / workforce-time context

- HHSC nighttime-window operations — geographic allocation estimate: 0.5
- Nighttime Schedule Coverage: 0.5%
- Early-Shift Workforce — workers leaving before 6 a.m.: 10.1%

Workforce geography

- Resident primary jobs — geographic allocation estimate: 88,601
- Workplace primary jobs — geographic allocation estimate: 97,299
- Resident-worker outbound share: 94.5%

Legislative geography

The district uses the governed 2025 ZIP-to-House-district crosswalk. Duplicate ZIP×district relationships use MAX(area_ratio), never SUM(area_ratio). Split ZIPs are preserved. Additive ZIP values are allocated by area_ratio and summed; district ratios are recomputed from the corrected components.

ZIP/ZCTA desert classification is direct Texas-compatible evidence. House district ratios are legislative context estimates.